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 === 1. The Great Collapse === === 1. The Great Collapse ===
  
-//​Introduction//:​ The Great Collapse, as you already know, was not a single event, but rather a concatenation and culmination of a number of intersecting crises: including an energy crisis, a climate crisis, an ecological crisis, a refugee crisis, a financial crisis, a food crisis myriad social crises, and crises of inequality, government legitimacy, continuous wars, nuclear ​profusion, ​all rapidly reaching their limits. Disasters and catastrophes abounded, each aggravating the others. There were tornados, wildfiresfloods, nuclear accidents, food and energy shortages. Climate refugees ​fleeing ​zones of flood, fire and unliveably hot temperatures ​carried ​with them epidemic diseases which spread among the inhabitants of more clement zones and became pandemic. Famine weakened the resistance of whole populations while blatant inequality between rich and poor aggravated tensions. ​+//​Introduction//:​ The Great Collapse, as you already know, was not a single event, but rather a concatenation and culmination of a number of intersecting crises: including an energy crisis, a climate crisis, an ecological crisis, a refugee crisis, a financial crisis, a food crisismyriad social crises, and crises of inequality, government legitimacy, continuous wars, nuclear ​proliferation - all rapidly reaching their limits. Disasters and catastrophes abounded, each aggravating the others. There were unprecedently violent ​tornados, ​widespread ​wildfires ​and floods, nuclear accidents, food and energy shortages. Climate refugees ​fled zones of flood, fire and unliveably hot temperatures, carrying ​with them epidemic diseases which spread among the inhabitants of more clement zones and became pandemic. Famine weakened the resistance ​to disease ​of entire ​populationswhile blatant inequality between rich and poor aggravated tensions. ​
  
-Global warming, the result of carbon-capitalism’s accelerating injection of greenhouse ​gasses ​into the earth’s ​thin atmosphere, was approaching ​its irreversible tipping point. ​If it had continued for another decade, we would not be here now, students and teachers, studying our planet’s history while at the same time struggling with all our collective energies to survive the results and mitigate the damage. A struggle you were born into and know will last for centuries.+Global warming, the result of carbon-capitalism’s accelerating injection of greenhouse ​gases into the earth’s atmosphere, was approaching ​an irreversible tipping point. ​Had it continued for another decade, we would not be here now, students and teachers, studying our planet’s history while at the same time struggling with all our collective energies to survive the results and mitigate the damage. A struggle you were born into and know will last for centuries.
  
-The Great Collapse marked the dividing line between Then and Now. It was the global crucible in which our cooperative,​ egalitarian,​ peaceful and democratic societies were forged. Although it entailed ​the suffering and death of billions of humans along with the extermination ​of many other creatures in hindsight we are obliged to look upon it as a “fortunate fall.” Not only did the Great Collapse prevent accelerating Climate Chaos from exploding into total apocalypse, it released the human powers of caring, solidarity and mutual aid from which today’s societies emerged.+The Great Collapse marked the dividing line between Then and Now. It was the global crucible in which our cooperative,​ egalitarian,​ peaceful and democratic societies were forged. Although it entailed ​vast suffering and the deaths ​of billions of humans along with the extinction ​of many species, in hindsight we are obliged to look upon it as a “fortunate fall.” Not only did the Great Collapse prevent accelerating Climate Chaos from exploding into total apocalypse, it released the human powers of caring, solidarity and mutual aid from which today’s societies emerged.
  
-The global crash and the collapse ​of the value of securities destabilized the international financial system. Fortunes in paper profits and fictitious capital vanished overnight, wiping out years of heedless, unregulated speculation. Banks closed their doors as crowds of depositors rushed to withdraw their savings. For want of credit (and customers able to pay) factories and businesses closed their doors, provoking mass unemployment and a rapid decline in production. This financial ​collapse did have one positive effect: carbon emissions fell back to 20th century levels.+The global crash and collapse ​in the value of securities destabilized the international financial system. Fortunes in paper profits and fictitious capital vanished overnight, wiping out years of heedless, unregulated speculation. Banks closed their doors as crowds of depositors rushed to withdraw their savings. For want of credit (and of customers able to pay) factories and businesses closed their doors, provoking mass unemployment and a rapid decline in production. This collapse ​of capitalist production and trade did have one positive effect: carbon emissions fell back to pre-20th century levels ​for an extended period, long enough that mitigation efforts could get under way and fossil fuels could be phased out almost entirely.
  
-In many areas, basic services like electricity,​ water, and health care collapsed. National governments proved largely incapable or unwilling to provide disaster aid to the victims. Inequality, already severe, became starker as the rich retired behind the militarized walls of their gated communities or fled to their well-stocked and well-defended estates in insolated ​zones. States were reduced to their basic function in class society: armed repression, defending the status quo against opposition by oppressed populations or rival states (and proto-states). When governments did send troops to disaster areas, their assignment was to “preserve law and order” and “protect property” by shooting “looters” rather than to help the locals by providing food, shelter and medical aid.+In many areas, basic services like electricity,​ water, and health care collapsed. National governments proved largely incapable or unwilling to provide disaster aid to the victims. Inequality, already severe, became starker as the rich retired behind the militarized walls of their gated communities or fled to their well-stocked and well-defended estates in isolated ​zones. States were reduced to their basic function in class society: armed repression, defending the status quo against opposition by oppressed populations or rival states (and proto-states). When governments did send troops to disaster areas, their assignment was to “preserve law and order” and “protect property” by shooting “looters” rather than to help the locals by providing food, shelter and medical aid.
  
 === 2. Disaster Capitalism vs. Self-Help === === 2. Disaster Capitalism vs. Self-Help ===
  
-This pattern had been observed as early as 2005 when Hurricane Katrina hit the iconic American city of New Orleans, ​La. The storm had provoked disastrous flooding when the levees were overwhelmed by accumulated rainwater, and it was later revealed that poor planning on the part of corrupt local government and blunders by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers were responsible. ​+This pattern had been observed as early as 2005 when Hurricane Katrina hit the iconic American city of New Orleans, ​Louisiana. The storm had provoked disastrous flooding when the levees were overwhelmed by accumulated rainwater, and it was later revealed that poor planning on the part of corrupt local government and blunders by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers were responsible. ​
  
-Immediately there were extensive reports of looting, violence, ​shooting against rescuers, murder and rape, snipers taking potshots at rescue helicopters. Reports of gangs roving the city shooting police officers and survivors. All of these reports were later proven false. Violence there was: racist violence on the part of white vigilante snipers who murdered at least 18 Black flood survivors. Ironically, instances of looting were later found out to have been carried out by a small number New Orleans Policemen (half of whom had fled the city as the storm approached). ​+Immediately there were extensive reports of looting, violence, ​shootings of rescue personnel, murder and rape, and snipers taking potshots at rescue helicopters. Reports ​circulated ​of gangs roving the cityshooting police officers and survivors. All of these reports were later proven false. Violence there was: racist violence on the part of white vigilante snipers who murdered at least 18 Black flood survivors. Ironically, instances of looting were later found out to have been carried out by a small number New Orleans Policemen (half of whom had fled the city as the storm approached). ​
  
-Meanwhile, the remaining survivors had been struggling, sometimes with considerable heroism, to help their neighbors, many of them old people stranded on the roofs of their flooded homes. Reported instances of "​looting"​ were in fact stranded ​survivors scavenging necessary supplies such as food, water, clothing, and shelter.  ​+Meanwhile, the remaining survivors had been struggling, sometimes with considerable heroism, to help their neighbors, many of them elderly ​people stranded on the roofs of their flooded homes. Reported instances of "​looting"​ were in fact survivors scavenging necessary supplies such as food, water, clothing, and shelter.  ​
  
-The arrival of the National Guard did little or nothing to aid the survivors while in effect criminalizing the survivors own efforts at helping each other. FEMA proved ​itself incompetant ​. During the recovery, under the cover of “National Emergency,” monied interests took control of the city’s reconstruction,​ driving ​the poor and Black residents out of their historic neighborhoods,​ gentrifying the French Quarter and privatizing the school system and other public goods.+The arrival of the National Guard did little or nothing to aid the survivors while in effect criminalizing the survivors' ​own efforts at helping each other. ​The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMAproved ​ridiculously incompetent. During the recovery, under cover of the emergency, monied interests took control of the city’s reconstruction,​ driving poor and Black residents out of their historic neighborhoods, ​further ​gentrifying the historic ​French Quarterand privatizing the school system and other public goods.
  
-By 2007, the journalist Naomi Kleinhad theorized this process of militarization followed by privatization as “Disaster Capitalism,​” and the tendency became more pronounced ​through out the early 21st century as disasters became more frequent and governments more authoritarian. ​For example in 2010  vast earthquake had devestated ​the already poor island country of Haïti. Although citizens and NGOs around the world immediately sent material and financial aid, the U.S. Army dominated the U.N.-sponsored mission, prioritized security, and turned away planes full of medical aid from the overburdened airport in order to bring in more soldiers and military equipment. ​+By 2007, the journalist Naomi Klein had theorized this process of militarization followed by privatization as “Disaster Capitalism,​” and the tendency became more pronounced ​throughout ​the early 21st century as disasters became more frequent and governments more authoritarian. ​In 2010, for example, ​devastating ​earthquake had struck ​the already poor island country of Haiti. Although citizens and NGOs around the world immediately sent material and financial aid, the U.S. Army dominated the U.N.-sponsored mission, prioritized security, and turned away planes full of medical aid from the overburdened airport in order to bring in more soldiers and military equipment. ​
  
-The soldiers ​brought ​with them cholera and failed to contain their wastes, provoking an epidemic among the weakened, undernourished ​Haïtians. Little was done to rebuild ​Haïti’s fragile infrastructure (housing, hospitals, roads) and financial aid was diverted into projects like a luxury hotel for aid workers. U.S. military occupation propped up the dictatorial ​cleptocratic ​regime which had tyrannized ​Haïti ​for generations,​ tolerating the Tontons Macoutes death squads, outlawing the popular opposition, and frustrating the poor masses’ yearning for real democracy. ​The Haïtian’s ​suffering ​got even worse when Hurricane ​Mathew ​leveled entire communities and caused an upsurge in the ongoing cholera epidemic.+Some of the soldiers ​arrived already infected ​with cholera and failed to contain their wastes, provoking an epidemic among the weakened, undernourished ​Haitians. Little was done to rebuild ​Haiti’s fragile infrastructure (housing, hospitals, roads) and financial aid was diverted into projects like a luxury hotel for aid workers. U.S. military occupation propped up the dictatorial, kleptocratic ​regime which had tyrannized ​Haiti for generations,​ tolerating the Tontons Macoutes death squads, outlawing the popular opposition, and frustrating the poor masses’ yearning for real democracy. ​Haitians' ​suffering ​became still worse in 2016 when Hurricane ​Matthew ​leveled entire communities and caused an upsurge in the ongoing cholera epidemic.
  
-During the Ebola epidemic in 2119,  attacks on two treatment centers operated by Doctors Without Borders led the group to close them, and brought a scorching and highly unusual self-assessment by Dr. Liu, who included her organization among those that had fallen short. She urged medical teams to treat Ebola patients “as humans and not as a biothreat.” She blamed not the communities,​ but the responders, for failing to win people’s trust. ​“They ​hear constant advice to wash their hands, but nothing about the lack of soap and water,” Dr. Liu said. “They see their relatives sprayed with chlorine and wrapped in plastic bags, buried without ceremony. Then they see their possessions burned.”+During the Ebola epidemic ​in Africa ​in 2119, attacks on two treatment centers operated by Doctors Without Borders led the group to close them, and brought a scorching and highly unusual self-assessment by Dr. Liu, who included her organization among those that had fallen short. She urged medical teams to treat Ebola patients “as humans and not as a biothreat.” She blamed not the communities,​ but the responders, for failing to win people’s trust. ​Local residents "hear constant advice to wash their hands, but nothing about the lack of soap and water,” Dr. Liu said. “They see their relatives sprayed with chlorine and wrapped in plastic bags, buried without ceremony. Then they see their possessions burned.”
  
-Another physician from Doctors Without Borders, Dr. Vinh-Kim Nguyen, wrote: “Early in the epidemic, we witnessed armed agents forcibly bringing patients in for treatment. In a population already traumatized by violence and forceful responses to numerous crises, such tactics fuel distrust of responders, which prompts patients to flee and spawns violence.”+Another physician from Doctors Without Borders, Dr. Vinh-Kim Nguyen, wrote: “Early in the epidemic, we witnessed armed agents forcibly bringing patients in for treatment. In a population already traumatized by violence and forceful responses to numerous crises, such tactics fuel distrust of responders, which prompts patients to flee and spawns violence.” ​Dr. Nguyen also noted that when Ebola teams were accompanied by security forces, they were met with fear and distrust, especially of forced vaccination. But when the security forces were absent, people would actually ask to be vaccinated. “The lesson is clear: Guns and public health don’t mix,” he wrote. But the lesson was never learned by governments.
  
-DrNguyen also noted that when Ebola teams were accompanied by security forcesthey were met with fear and distrustespecially ​of forced vaccinationBut when the security forces were absent, people would actually ask to be vaccinated“The lesson is clear: Guns and public health don’t mix,” he wrote. But the lesson was never learned by governments.+Many other examples could be cited as this pattern persisted through the next decadesObserving generalized government incompetence,​ brutalitycorruption ​and indifference to their sufferinggreat masses people around the world began to lose faith in authority - all the more as evidence mounted ​of governmental responsibility for and complicity in provoking disastersSuch revelations spread widely and quickly across social media on the Internet. (Since the Internet was originally designed ​to permit the U.S. military to maintain communications in case of war and mass destructionit actually remained largely operational throughout ​the Great Collapse.)
  
-This pattern continued through ​the next decadesObserving ​the generalized government incompetence,​ brutality, corruption ​and indifference to their sufferinggreat masses people around ​the world began to lose faith in their authorityEspecially where evidence ​of governmental responsibility for and complicity ​in provoking disasters was leaked ​and went viralthanks ​to the Internet ​which, ​originally devised ​to permit ​the U.Smilitary to continue to communicate after mass destruction of infrastructurecontinued ​to operate internationally through ​proliferation of undersea cables which escaped destruction.+The Great Pandemic, which eventually wiped out over a billion people, was widely blamed on the U.S. when it was discovered that the CIA had been testing an experimental virus in Africa. Apparently a few of the victims escaped ​and the virus spreadwhile the authorities conspired ​to cover it up until it was too lateThis phenomenon reminded contemporary commentators ​of the AIDS tragedy, which in the late 20th century ravaged millions while media, medical ​and government elites remained indifferent. That epidemic eventually led to the self-organization of the Gay community, unleashing a powerful social force. //(We are fortunate ​in having among our Future Historians Sam Friedman, who, at a spry 180, is both a social epidemiologist ​and a poet, to help us elaborate this particular scenario.)//​ In any case, under the then-operative market system, there was little incentive for pharmaceutical companies, ​which spent billions annually lobbying to preserve their monopolies, to invest in research on epidemic diseases, which mainly affected poor people who could seldom afford ​the cost of patented remediesResearch concentrated instead on sexual enhancementesthetic improvement,​ longevity, and transhuman devices sold to the rich at profit at inflated prices.
  
-For examplethe Great Pandemic, which eventually wiped out over billion peoplewas widely blamed on the U.S. when it was discovered that the CIA had been testing an experimental virus in Africa. Apparently a few “subjects” escaped ​and the virus spread, while the authorities conspired ​to cover it up until it was too lateThis phenomenon reminded contemporary historians of the AIDS tragedywhich in the late 20th century ravaged millions while the media, medical and government elites remained indifferent. An epidemic which eventually lead to the self-organization ​if the whole Gay community unleashing a powerful social force//(We are fortunate in having ​among our Future Historians Sam Friedman, who, at a spry 180, is both a social epidemiologist ​and a poet, to help us elaborate this particular scenario.)//​ In any case, under the then-operative market systemthere was little incentive for pharmaceutical companieswhich spent billions annually lobbying to preserve their monopolies, to invest in research on epidemic diseases, which mainly affected poor people who mostly could not pay. Instead, research concentrated on sexual enhancement,​ esthetic improvement,​ longevity, and transhuman devices sold to the rich at a profit at inflated prices.+The pandemics were a catastrophe of planetary proportions. In their wakefamine also developed into planet-wide catastrophe, and this ultimately led to a planetary responseSporadiclocal food riots gave rise to cooperative ​self-organization ​against agribusiness monopolies that hoarded and speculated while people starvedDebt strikes ​(instead of suicides) broke out among peasants ruined by the need to buy seeds from corporate monopolies ​and barred from using their own seeds as peasants had done for millennia. Industrial farmers too had been driven ​to bankruptcy and suicide by the high cost of petroleum-based fertilizerspesticides and other chemical inputs. Monsanto ​was attacked and shunnedmoney-lenders were rooted out
  
-The pandemics were a catastrophe of planetary proportions. ​In their wake, famine also developed into a planet-wide catastrophe, and it ultimately lead to a planetary response. Sporadiclocal food riots led to cooperative self organization against ​the market system that speculated while people starved. Debt strikes (instead ​of suicides) broke out among peasants ruined by need to buy seeds from corporate monopolies and barred from using their own seeds as peasants have for millennia. Industrial farmers too had been driven to bankruptcyand suicide ​by the high cost of petroleum-based fertilizerspesticides ​and other chemical inputs. Monsanto was attacked ​and shunned, money-lenders were rooted out+In less than two decadesbetween pandemics ​and famines, the world population ​of 8 billion humans was, according ​to our best estimatesreduced ​by more than one-half. One result of the horrific die-off was that unemployment,​ the Iron Law of capitalist economics, fell nearly to zero for an extended period ​for the first time in the Industrial Age. The scarcity of labor put working people at a relative advantage in dealing with their employersencouraging them to demand better wages and conditions; to struggle ​and to win as they grew more aware of their strength
  
-In fewer than two decades, between pandemics and famines, the world population of 8 billion humans was, according to our best estimates, reduce by more than one half. The suffering this entailed was undescribable. However, one result of this horrific die-off was that unemployment,​ the Iron Law of capitalist economics, disappeared for the first time in the Industrial Age. The scarcity of labor put working people at a relative advantage in dealing with their employers, encouraging them to demand better wages and conditions; to struggle and win as they grew more aware of their strength. ​Historians noted that a similar phenomenon ​took place during ​the Middle Ages, when the Black Plage wiped out large swaths ​of the population ​and peasants ​were able to stand up to their landlordsThis led to peasant revolts ​like those of Watt Tylor and John Ball in England, ​and although they were eventually ​put down, the feudal system ​was altered ​and became much less harsh+Historians noted that a similar phenomenon ​had taken place at the close of the Middle Ages, when the Black Death wiped out large swathes ​of the European ​population. In the aftermath, ​peasants ​gained the upper hand against feudal landowners and forced an end to serfdom in the north and west of EuropeAlthough some of the more dramatic ​peasant revolts, such as that Wat Tylor and John Ball in England, were put down, the overall result ​was a major weakening of landlord power and a temporary flourishing of peasant communities among those who had survived the plague. Ruling elites later resorted to enclosure of common lands and witch-hunts to break the power of the peasantry and especially that of women; these in turn facilitated the rise of capitalism, a new form of oppression.
  
-Pandemics, famines and other catastrophes began to be seen by the victims as the responsibility of the powerful, the rich, the multinational corporations and the governments. Their own suffering and that of their neighbors forcibly opened their eyes. The ruling ​class, the 1%-ers, were perceived responsible for provoking disasters, mishandling them, and profiteering from them. Worldwide, the 99% of ordinary folk on the land and in the towns were increasingly disaffected and held in check only by pro-system media propaganda and ultimately by security forces, which included hi-tech surveillance of whole populations ​and persecution of journalists,​ whistle-blowers,​ and agitators. ​+Pandemics, famines and other catastrophes began to be seen by the victims as the responsibility of the powerful, the rich, the multinational corporations and the governments. Their own suffering and that of their neighbors forcibly opened their eyes. The ruling ​classes, the 1%-ers, were perceived ​as responsible for provoking disasters, mishandling them, and profiteering from them. Worldwide, the 99% of ordinary folk on the land and in the towns and cities ​were increasingly disaffected and held in check only by pro-system media propaganda and ultimately by security forces, which made use of high-tech surveillance of entire ​populations ​along with the persecution of journalists,​ whistle-blowers,​ and agitators. ​
  
-There was increasing tension, indeed conflict, between the attempts ​of self-help, self-organization,​ and mutual aid that recurrently accompanied the outbreak of disaster situations, and the conduct of the military and civil authorities that imposed themselves by violence, often hampering rescue and reconstruction efforts, and everywhere imposed the interests of private property to the detriment of human rights, indeed of human survival.  ​+There was increasing tension, indeed conflict, between the attempts ​at self-help, self-organization,​ and mutual aid that recurrently accompanied the outbreak of disaster situations, and the conduct of the military and civil authorities that imposed themselves by violence, often hampering rescue and reconstruction efforts, and everywhere imposed the interests of private property to the detriment of human rights, indeed of human survival.  ​
  
-This glaring contradiction transformed every catastrophe into a struggle not only against suffering but against authority. Despite government and commercial censorship and propaganda, the evidence of this contradiction circulated through Internet platforms and alternate mediaand became part of planetary consciousness,​ paving the way for the eventual emergence of a global uprising of the billions against the billionnaires ​of sufficient strength to overwhelm them and their paid mercenaries and lay the basis for new, democratic, egalitarian societies to arise among the wreckage of the old.+This glaring contradiction transformed every catastrophe into a struggle not only against suffering but against authority. Despite government and commercial censorship and propaganda, the evidence of this contradiction circulated through Internet platforms and alternate media and became part of planetary consciousness,​ paving the way for the eventual emergence of a global uprising of the billions against the billionaires ​of sufficient strength to overwhelm them and their paid mercenaries and lay the basis for new, democratic, egalitarian societies to arise among the wreckage of the old.
  
 === 3. Didn’t They See Collapse Coming? === === 3. Didn’t They See Collapse Coming? ===
  
-Why did the Great Collapse take so many people by surprise? Although academic specialists in various fields like climatology,​ geology, economics, agriculture,​ sociology, politics and even finance (a few old Marxist critics) were warning about impending ​collapses ​ranging from over-leveraged financial bubbles, ​ to melting icecaps, rising ​oceans, salination of oceans, extinction of coral, peak oil, inequality, global conflicts, homeless refugees, ethnic strife and famines, there was little interdisciplinary study of the myriad ways in which each of these crises ​interacted ​with, and frequently ​aggravated, each other. ​+Why did the Great Collapse take so many people by surprise? Although academic specialists in various fields like climatology,​ geology, economics, agriculture,​ sociology, politics and even finance (a few old Marxist critics) were warning about impending ​crises ​ranging from over-leveraged financial bubbles, to melting icecaps, rising oceans, extinction of coral reefs, peak oil, inequality, global conflicts, homeless refugees, ethnic strife and famines, there was little interdisciplinary study of the myriad ways in which each of these crises ​would interact ​with, and frequently ​aggravate, each other. ​
  
-The planetary consciousness that humanity was dealing with the crisis of a complex, interconnected system only dawned slowly. Around 2000, the term “Anthropocene” began to be used to mark a new geological epoch during ​which the influence of human behavior ​on the Earth’s ​atmosphere ​since the rise of industry became predominant. But the term “Collapsology” – the study of the interaction of collapsing systems in various fields – did not come into usage until about 2015.+The planetary consciousness that humanity was dealing with the crisis of a complex, interconnected system only dawned slowly. Around 2000, the term “Anthropocene” began to be used to mark a new geological epoch in which human activity had begun to have adverse consequences on the entire earth system - above all on the atmosphere, such that mounting levels of carbon dioxide from the worldwide burning ​of fossil fuels threatened to touch off uncontrolled heating of the planet to levels incompatible with human life. But the term “Collapsology” – the study of the interaction of collapsing systems in various fields – did not come into usage until about 2015.
  
-Nonetheless,​ by the early 21st century, most of informed world opinion was aware of the impending ​Climate ​chaos due to growing carbon emissions, despite the massive denial campaign of petroleum lobbies and the governments they controlled. World conferences were held, pious resolutions to voluntarily reduce carbon emissions were endorsed by all the nations (with the exception of the biggest polluter, the U.S. under the Trump administration). But carbon emissions continued to rise every year, and nothing was done despite the near-unanimous predictions of climatologists and increasing agitation among citizens’ groups. ​+Nonetheless,​ by the early 21st century, most of informed world opinion was aware of the impending ​climate ​chaos due to growing carbon emissions, despite the massive denial campaign of petroleum lobbies and the governments they controlled. World conferences were held, pious resolutions to voluntarily reduce carbon emissions were endorsed by all nations (with the exception of the biggest polluter, the U.S. under the Trump administration). But carbon emissions continued to rise every year, and few effective measures were taken despite the near-unanimous predictions of climatologists and increasing agitation among citizens’ groups ​- above all, starting in 2019, strikes and mobilizations of school-age children and youth outraged at what they judged as the criminal indifference on the part of older generations.
  
-Already in the 1970’s, scientists working for the petroleum giant Exxon had been warning management in private memos about impending climate catastrophe. The scientists’ modeling correctly predicted that if oil consumption continued to increase it would lead to global warning and eventual ​climate chaos. Their predictions were ignored and their research kept secret. Their research was only made known in 2010, thanks to  the nonprofit ​news organization Inside Climate News. +As early as the 1970s, scientists working for the petroleum giant Exxon had been warning management in private memos about global warming. The scientists’ modeling correctly predicted that if oil and gas consumption continued to increase it would eventually ​lead to climate chaos. Their predictions were ignored and their research was suppressed for decades, ​only becoming ​known in 2010, thanks to the nonprofit organization Inside Climate News.
  
-As the editors of The Wall Street Journal commented at the time: “More damagingly, the company set a model for the rest of the industry. Today, scientists who say the exact same thing are ridiculed in the business community. Exxon, rather than change its business plan, chose the path of disinformation,​ denial and delay – just like the tobacco industry faced with the evidence of cancer.”+As the editors of //The Wall Street Journal// commented at the time: “More damagingly, the company set a model for the rest of the industry. Today, scientists who say the exact same thing are ridiculed in the business community. Exxon, rather than change its business plan, chose the path of disinformation,​ denial and delay – just like the tobacco industry faced with the evidence of cancer.”
  
-But the petroleum interests were to prove to be far more powerful than the tobacco lobby. They dominated a number of authoritarian,​ kleptocratic petro-states ​– up to and including ​Russia. They also strongly influenced the U.S. and NATO governments,​ dictating foreign policy including military action to protect the oil giants’ overseas interests. They were at the nexus of the “military-industrial-complex” – the “deep state” of U.S. imperialism. Thanks to their predominance over other economic sectors (like manufacturing and retailing), they continued to benefit from huge government subsidies and arcane tax privileges all the while reaping fabulous profits. ​+But the petroleum interests were to prove far more powerful than the tobacco lobby. They dominated a number of authoritarian,​ kleptocratic petro-states ​from Saudia Arabia ​to Russia. They also strongly influenced the U.S. and NATO governments,​ dictating foreign policy including military action to protect the oil giants’ overseas interests. They were at the nexus of the “military-industrial-complex” – the “deep state” of U.S. imperialism. Thanks to their predominance over other economic sectors (like manufacturing and retailing), they continued to benefit from huge government subsidies and arcane tax privilegesall the while reaping fabulous profits. ​
  
-The Big Lie of the half- century 1970-2020 was the Denial ​of human-generated ​climate changeIt was generated and propagated by the fossil fuel industry, whose profits, indeed whose very existence, were immediately threatened, if the truth came to light and was acted upon.  Having dismissed their own truthful scientists, Big Oil hired their own bogus “climate specialists” to undermine fast-accumulating reports by commissions of highly respected scientists. Carbon corporations had also long dominated the media through “sponsoring” and pre-censoring radio and TV shows through commercials. ​This fabricated “controversy” permitted governments to continue to claim that the danger was still unproven.+The Big Lie of the half-century 1970-2020 was the denial ​of Anthropogenic (human-generated) Climate Disruption (ACD)This big lie was propagated by the fossil fuel industry, whose profits, indeed whose very existence, were immediately threatened, if the truth should come to light and be acted upon.  Having dismissed their own truthful scientists, Big Oil hired bogus “climate specialists” to undermine fast-accumulating reports by commissions of highly respected scientists. Carbon corporations had also long dominated the media through “sponsoring” and pre-censoring radio and TV shows through commercials. ​The fabricated “controversy” ​over ACD permitted governments to continue to claim that the danger was still unproven.
  
-So although by the early 21st century the visible effects of global warming (droughts, floods, forest fires, ​ice melts) could no longer be hidden, ​the U.S. and other industrial nations ​stuck to the Big Lie that global warming and catastrophic climate change ​are unproven ​and possibly myths cooked up by a conspiracy of liberals, left-wing scientists and/or the Chinese. Although the climatic tipping point was known to be a life and death, existential question for the future of humanity, the evidence of independent scientists was not believed ​and their conclusions were routinely dismissed ​by world leaders. Instead, in the name of “growth,​” they continued to push for more fossil fuel production, to block the implementation of even the feeblest attempts to limit it (e.g. the Paris agreement), and to fight bloody wars over the domination of petroleum-rich countries in the Middle East and elsewhere. ​+So although by the early 21st century the visible effects of global warming (droughts, floods, forest fires, ​melting icecaps and glaciers, rising seas) could no longer be hidden, ​ruling elites by and large stuck to the Big Lie that global warming and catastrophic climate change ​were unproven. Indeed, some claimed that it was a myth cooked up by a conspiracy of liberals, left-wing scientists and/or the Chinese. Although the climatic tipping point was known to be a life and death, existential question for the future of humanity, the evidence of independent scientists was not taken seriously enough, ​and their conclusions were given lip service at best by world leaders. Instead, in the name of “economic ​growth,” they continued to enable ​more fossil fuel production, to stall on implementing ​even the feeblest attempts to limit it (e.g. the Paris agreement), and to fight bloody wars over the domination of petroleum-rich countries in the Middle East and elsewhere. ​
  
 As Adolf Hitler asserted in //Mein Kampf//: “The grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying.” The “conspiracy of expert liars” in the case of climate change included the petroleum corporations,​ the governments and the mainstream press who had been suppressing or obfuscating the truth – although the facts had been “nailed down” for over half a century. ​ As Adolf Hitler asserted in //Mein Kampf//: “The grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying.” The “conspiracy of expert liars” in the case of climate change included the petroleum corporations,​ the governments and the mainstream press who had been suppressing or obfuscating the truth – although the facts had been “nailed down” for over half a century. ​
  
-Like Hitler’s Big Lie about the responsibility of the Jews for Germany’s humiliating defeat in WWI big petroleum’s climate denial lie was backed up by bullies who intimidated potential truth tellers. For example, under capitalism the geology departments of the major research universities were largely funded by petroleum money, and so professors were hardly encouraged to speak out on the necessity to stop burning oil if they who wanted to keep their jobs and their grants. Similarly the major media, dependent on advertising revenues from petroleum and related industries (auto, highway construction,​ agrobusiness,​ shipping), were roped into the climate-denial “conspiracy of expert liars.” So it is hardly an accident that although in the early 21st century weather reporting filled up more than 20% of news broadcast time in the U.S., TV “meteorologists” avoided such tainted “politicized” expressions as “global warming” and the “greenhouse effect” and devoted almost no air time to the causes of the increasing climate chaos whose consequences they were describing. ​+Like Hitler’s Big Lie about the responsibility of the Jews for Germany’s humiliating defeat in WWIbig petroleum’s climate denial lie was backed up by bullies who intimidated potential truth tellers. For example, under capitalism the geology departments of the major research universities were largely funded by petroleum money, and so professors were hardly encouraged to speak out on the necessity to stop burning oil if they who wanted to keep their jobs and their grants. Similarly the major media, dependent on advertising revenues from petroleum and related industries (auto, highway construction,​ agrobusiness,​ shipping), were roped into the climate-denial “conspiracy of expert liars.” So it is hardly an accident that although in the early 21st century weather reporting filled up more than 20% of news broadcast time in the U.S., TV “meteorologists” avoided such tainted “politicized” expressions as “global warming” and the “greenhouse effect” and devoted almost no air time to the causes of the increasing climate chaos whose consequences they were describing. ​
  
-As for the U.S. government, oil states continued to dominate Congress, and the White House had been controlled by oilmen since at least LBJ (1963). In 2017 Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson was named President Trump’s first Secretary of State, and Oklahoma oil-lobbyist ​named Pruitt ruled the EPA. Pruitt, who made his career as a paid “expert liar” for the oil companies and who was apparently not very bright, apparently actually believed climate denial, and so he once naively proposed a “public debate” on the forbidden topic. Pruitt’s great idea was promptly quashed by the Trump White House as such a public debate would have been a “damaging spectacle, creating an unnecessary distraction from the steps the administration ​has taken to slash environmental regulations.” ​ Any such public debate would inevitably have  implicated the military, a major consumer of petroleum, whose primary mission ​has long been to protect (and if possible expand) U.S. petroleum interests around the world and whose massive budget ​depends ​on serving the global interests of the petroleum lobby.+As for the U.S. government, oil states continued to dominate Congress, and the White House had been controlled by oilmen since at least LBJ (1963). In 2017 Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson was named President Trump’s first Secretary of State, and Oklahoma oil-lobbyist ​Scott Pruitt ruled the Environmental Protection Agency. Pruitt, who made his career as a paid “expert liar” for the oil companies and who was apparently not very bright, apparently actually believed climate denial, and so he once naively proposed a “public debate” on the forbidden topic. Pruitt’s great idea was promptly quashed by the Trump White Houseas such a public debate would have been a “damaging spectacle, creating an unnecessary distraction from the steps the administration ​had taken to slash environmental regulations.” ​ Any such public debate would inevitably have implicated the military, a major consumer of petroleum, whose primary mission ​had long been to protect (and if possible expand) U.S. petroleum interests around the world and whose massive budget ​depended ​on serving the global interests of the petroleum lobby.
  
 === 4. What Was It about Oil? === === 4. What Was It about Oil? ===
   ​   ​
-Why did these powerful leaders, special interests, and institutions conspire to lead the planet to self-destruction by any means necessary, including war and fake news? Alas there is only one possible answer to this question: to preserve the wealth and power of that fraction of the capitalist 1%-ers whose wealth ​is tied up in carbon deposits beneath the soil.+Why did these powerful leaders, special interests, and institutions conspire to lead the planet to self-destruction by any means necessary, including war and fake news? Alasthere is only one possible answer to this question: to preserve the wealth and power of that fraction of the capitalist 1%-ers whose wealth ​was tied up in carbon deposits beneath the soil.
    
-Why, since they are so rich and powerful, didn’t they ever reverse the course of denial and domination they chose in the 70’s and invest their capital in renewable energy sources? The answer is that their vast wealth took the form of fossil minerals in the ground whose value could only be realized when they are burned. At the pump a gallon of gas may have been worth two or three dollars. In the ground it was  worthless. As with all commodities under capitalism, the value of carbon deposits was based on what financiers called “futures” – the expected price they would bring when brought to market at some future time. If governments had made the decision to save the planet by converting to renewable energy before it was too late, that “future time” of sales and profits would never have come. The buried minerals would have become what economists ​call “stranded assets.” Their monetary value, on which the wealth and power of the petroleum corporations depended, would rapidly have sunk and with it the price of petroleum shares. Petroleum shareholders would soon have been as broke as the owners of buggy whip factories the year after Ford introduced the Model T. +Why, since they were so rich and powerful, didn’t they ever reverse the course of denial and domination they chose in the 70’s and invest their capital in renewable energy sources? The answer is that their vast wealth took the form of fossil minerals in the groundwhose value could only be realized when they were burned. At the pump a gallon of gas may have been worth two or three dollars, but in the ground it was  worthless. As with all commodities under capitalism, the value of carbon deposits was based on what financiers called “futures” – the expected price they would bring when brought to market at some future time. If governments had made the decision to save the planet by converting to renewable energy before it was too late, that “future time” of sales and profits would never have come. The buried minerals would have become what economists ​called ​“stranded assets.” Their monetary value, on which the wealth and power of the petroleum corporations depended, would rapidly have sunk and with it the price of petroleum shares. Petroleum shareholders would soon have been as broke as the owners of buggy whip factories the year after Ford introduced the Model T. 
  
-Naturally the carbon interests were desperate. For them – and for the military industrial complex which they dominate ​– there was no turning back. They could only go forward into increased petroleum production, taking their profits ​now while leading the rest of us like lemmings over the cliff of climate catastrophe. From a business point of view, they could have no thought for the human future. Only for petroleum futures. Hence the need to keep repeating the same Big Lie of climate denial. ​+Naturally the carbon interests were desperate. For them – and for the military industrial complex which they dominated ​– there was no turning back. They could only go forward into increased petroleum production, taking their profits ​at once while leading the rest of the world like lemmings over the cliff of climate catastrophe. From a business point of view, they could have no thought for the human future. Only for petroleum futures. Hence the need to keep repeating the same Big Lie of climate denial. ​
  
-The Petroleum lobby was able to dominate the world not only because oil (and coal of course) was intimately linked with transportation and industry, it also dominated the plastics industry (polluting the oceans with indestructible plastic bags) and, most fatally, agriculture. For the industrial agriculture that produced more than half of the world’s food supply in the early 21st century was totally dependent on petroleum fertilizers,​ having turned the exhausted soil into container for ‘inputs’ (fertilizer,​ chemical insecticides,​ pesticides) spread by gigantic petroleum-powered farm machines+The Petroleum lobby was able to dominate the world not only because oil (and coal of course) was indispensable for transportation and industry, it also dominated the plastics industry (polluting the oceans with indestructible plastic bags and other such waste) and, most fatally, agriculture. For the industrial agriculture that produced more than half of the world’s food supply in the early 21st century was totally dependent on petroleum-based ​fertilizers,​ having turned the exhausted soil into container for ‘inputs’ (fertilizer,​ chemical insecticides,​ pesticides) spread by gigantic petroleum-powered farm machinery
  
-The petroleum lobby was thus intimately linked with the agro-chemical industry, which produced the pesticides, developed genetically-modified seeds, and which through the enforcement of “intellectual property” rights created a monopoly of seeds, which for thousands of years had been set aside by peasant from their crops to plant for their next crop. Monsanto and other such companies sent scientists to gather the native knowledge of peasant farmers around the world and then patented these seeds to prevent their actual inventors ​from planting them without buying them from the Corporation! So that under patent laws adopted by government they lobbied, it became a crime to plant your own seeds on your own land.+The petroleum lobby was thus intimately linked with the agro-chemical industry, which produced the pesticides, developed genetically-modified seeds, and which through the enforcement of “intellectual property” rights created a monopoly of seed stocks, which for thousands of years had been set aside by peasant from their harvests ​to plant for the following year'​s ​crop. Monsanto and other such companies sent scientists to gather the native knowledge of peasant farmers around the world and then patented these seeds to prevent their original possessors ​from planting them without buying them from the Corporation! So that under patent laws adopted by government they lobbied, it became a crime to plant your own seeds on your own land.
  
 === 5. Feeding the World === === 5. Feeding the World ===
  
-Fortunately for our survival, petroleum-based industrial agriculture ​on produced half what what people ate. The rest of the world, the so-called “underdeveloped” world, still depended ​on peasant agriculture,​ mostly carried on by women, who both cultivated the land, fed their families, and brought the rest of their produce to local market-places. Moreover, in the industrialized countries, aware consumers had begun rejecting the bland, fattening, unhealthy commercial diets, creating a market for so-called “organic,​” untreated food. At the same time, there were movements among young people to go back to the land, become farmers using organic methods, and distribute their produce through non-commercial networks and consumer cooperatives. In China as well, where famine had been chronic throughout every dynasty including that of Mao Tse-tung, desert lands were being brought back to life through the use of Permaculture methods.+Fortunately for our survival, petroleum-based industrial agriculture ​only produced half what people ate. The rest of the world, the so-called “underdeveloped” world, ​was still largely dependent ​on peasant agriculture,​ mostly carried on by women, who cultivated the land, fed their families, and brought the rest of their produce to local market-places. Moreover, in the industrialized countries, aware consumers had begun rejecting the bland, fattening, unhealthy commercial diets, creating a market for so-called “organic,​” untreated food. At the same time, there were movements among young people to go back to the land, become farmers using organic methods, and distribute their produce through non-commercial networks and consumer cooperatives. In China as well, where famine had been chronic throughout every dynasty including that of Mao Tse-tung, desert lands were being brought back to life through the use of Permaculture methods.
  
 Slowly but surely, despite the cut-throat competition of billionaire supermarket corporations which purchased vegetables cheaply at wholesale markets and resold them at ten times the cost, the so-called “slow food” and and “buy local” networks continued to grow. These networks, and the surviving traditional peasant farms, laid the groundwork for the food system we have today. For with the collapse of the petroleum and chemical-based globalized industrial agricultural and distribution system, humanity was able to build on that basis in the face of global famine. Slowly but surely, despite the cut-throat competition of billionaire supermarket corporations which purchased vegetables cheaply at wholesale markets and resold them at ten times the cost, the so-called “slow food” and and “buy local” networks continued to grow. These networks, and the surviving traditional peasant farms, laid the groundwork for the food system we have today. For with the collapse of the petroleum and chemical-based globalized industrial agricultural and distribution system, humanity was able to build on that basis in the face of global famine.
 But why was there famine in a world where in a country like the U.S., half the food purchased ended up as garbage? ​ Why hunger in poor countries where food was produced and exported in great quantities? But why was there famine in a world where in a country like the U.S., half the food purchased ended up as garbage? ​ Why hunger in poor countries where food was produced and exported in great quantities?
  
-[Here we summarize the arguments of Frances Moore Lappé’s “10 questions about world hunger”transformed into the past. We then borrow texts describing today’s (2019) efforts at permaculture,​ local food, etc and extrapolate. We give this movement full historical credit for setting the example and laying the ground work under capitalism, spreading its methods as the crisis deepened, and in a position to transform itself into a new global way of feeding humanity in the crucible of the Great Collapse]+[Here we summarize the arguments of Frances Moore Lappé’s “10 questions about world hunger” transformed into the past. We then borrow texts describing today’s (2019) efforts at permaculture,​ local food, etc and extrapolate. We give this movement full historical credit for setting the example and laying the groundwork ​under capitalism, spreading its methods as the crisis deepened, and in a position to transform itself into a new global way of feeding humanity in the crucible of the Great Collapse]
  
-A hungry world fell back into mixed peasant agriculture,​ organic, permaculture and multi-crop farming began developing all over, from traditional peasant lands to urban gardens. Paradoxically,​ fewer acres under intensive cultivation began producing larger quantities and variety of foodstuffs than monocrop industrial methods on huge farms. The supermarkets,​ having been systematically looted, were razed. Their parking lots were dug up and transformed back to into farm land.  The countryside and villages began repopulating,​ as much more intensive human labor was required in agriculture. Animal traction replaced oversized petroleum-driven machinery, and animal waste (as well as human) replaced petroleum products as fertilizer.+A hungry world fell back into mixed peasant agriculture,​ organic, permaculture and multi-crop farming began developing all over, from traditional peasant lands to urban gardens. Paradoxically,​ fewer acres under intensive cultivation began producing larger quantities and variety of foodstuffs than monocrop industrial methods on huge farms. The supermarkets,​ having been systematically looted, were razed. Their parking lots were dug up and transformed back into farmland.  The countryside and villages began repopulating,​ as much more intensive human labor was required in agriculture. Animal traction replaced oversized petroleum-driven machinery, and animal waste (as well as human) replaced petroleum products as fertilizer.
  
 === 6. The Paradox of Petroleum: Peak Oil and Debt Slavery === === 6. The Paradox of Petroleum: Peak Oil and Debt Slavery ===
catastrophes.txt · Last modified: 2019/03/16 21:52 by admin